Presidential Role Models

President John F. Kennedy admired John Quincy Adams, Daniel Webster, and Sam Houston.

President Franklin Delano Roosevelt admired Winston Churchill. 

Donald Trump admires Vladimir Putin. 

'Nuff said.

WWSD?

WHAT WOULD JUDGE ANTONIN SCALIA DO?

JUDGE GORSUCH: How best are America's interests served? My original opinion was to filibuster him to rub Mitch McConnell's nose in his delegitimization of President Obama up to and including not even giving HIS SCOTUS nominee the courtesy of hearings let alone a vote.

Now, with the Russia / Trump crisis overshadowing most of my other priorities, I think I'm changing my mind. (Yes, that occasionally happens, even on the internet. :-) )

In normal times, Judge Gorsuch would receive hearings and a vote. In normal times, I don't THINK he'd be filibustered. He seems obviously qualified, he's the president's pick, elections have consequences, and the balance of the court would not change: Scalia gone replaced by Gorsuch.

Considering that in the present crisis SCOTUS will almost CERTAINLY have to weigh in on SOMETHING at some point, I find myself pondering what Justice Scalia might do confronted with the Russia / Trump crisis and how likely is it that a Justice Gorsuch would respond in a similar way?

Any thoughts?

"Circumstantial, my dear Watson."

Congressman Adam Schiff (D) on circumstantial evidence: if you go to bed at night and the streets are clear and you wake up the next morning and they are snow covered you are pretty much compelled to believe "it snowed last night" even though you lack the "direct evidence" of having actually SEEN it snow. (paraphrase)

Even though there is no DIRECT evidence of collusion between folks in the Trump orbit and the Russian military intelligence effort, there is apparently enough CIRCUMSTANTIAL evidence to launch a counter-espionage investigation examining, among other things, individuals associated with Trump.

I suspect that means sufficient probable cause to get FISA warrants for wire taps on those American citizens.

There are, as far as I can tell, two ways to account for the Flynn transcript: an analyst or intelligence officer very close to the operational end leaked the raw transcript pre-minimizing it to protect Flynn's identity OR that at some level - possibly higher up the food chain - leaked a transcript collected under warrant IN WHICH FLYNN WAS THE *TARGET* of the investigation without any intent of "minimizing" his name from the record.

This is extremely serious.

A way to get perspective on this - for those of a certain age - is to ask yourself, "Does this look more like Benghazi... or Watergate?"

Again, no direct, non-circumstantial evidence of collusion.

But enough probable cause to wield the considerable, court-sanctioned investigative tools available to the FBI.

Propagandist-in-Chief

NOT ALL PROPAGANDA by an administration is impeachable. Administrations use propaganda as a tool to achieve America's national interest.

But if the Trump administration's propaganda can be shown to be a tool to achieve Trump's and Bannon's and Goldman Sachs' and Exxon's and Russia's interests - at the expense of degraded American credibility and the weakening of NATO and the European Union - THAT IS IMPEACHABLE.

"Propaganda is a truly terrible weapon in the hands of an expert."
-Adolf Hitler

Quotation from the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum.

Also see Robert Reich's video, Ten Steps for Turning Lies into Near Truth with Donald Trump

Why the investigation of the 2016 election is crucial.

It’s not just that Russia tried to influence our election. Countries try to influence other country’s elections.

ALL THE TIME.

Netanyahu broke diplomatic protocol and going straight to Congress to convince them to shoot down the Obama administration's Iran deal. He failed. Obama was pissed.

But it was sharp-elbowed pursuit of national interests BETWEEN ALLIES.

It also didn't involve hacking into American servers.

They probably hack into American servers all the time. And we probably hack into Israeli servers, just as we tapped Merkel's phone.

Allies spy on each other.

ALL THE TIME.

What allies DON'T do, what the Russians DID do, is to leak the intelligence product of their espionage to degrade their ally's credibility at home and abroad by damaging their democratic institutions.

Which is what the Russians have done to us and NATO and what they also are seeking to do with the European Union.

That is VERY different from what Netanyahu did to us. Or what we did to Andrea Merkel.

The Russians are engaging NATO and the European Union in what the West has called "Hybrid warfare," "little green men" (Ukraine) or, as the Russians call it, "Strategic Deterrence": weakening an adversary's ability to respond effectively to Russian foreign policy initiatives (such as the annexation of Crimea or their military support for Assad in Syria).

**********
‘Strategic deterrence’ is described in the military-encyclopaedic dictionary of the [Russian] Ministry of Defence:
A coordinated system of military and non-military (political, diplomatic, legal, economic, ideological, scientific–technical and others) measures taken consecutively or simultaneously
… with the goal of deterring military action entailing damage of a strategic character
… Strategic deterrence is directed at the stabilisation of the military–political situation  Russian Strategic Deterrence | 11
… in order to influence an adversary within a predetermined framework, or for the de-escalation of military conflict
… The objects to be influenced through strategic deterrence may be the military–political leadership and the population of the potential adversary state (or coalition of states) … Strategic-deterrent measures are carried out continuously, both in peacetime and in wartime.19
***********

The Russians are attempting to de-fang the US, NATO, and the European Union in pursuit of his plan to reunite the old Soviet Union into a new Russian empire.

The Baltic States, Ukraine, Poland, have been there before. And they are very concerned about the West’s ability to deter Russian aggression.

America should be concerned as well.

Russian Strategic Deterrence

Stay on Target

TRUMP HAS GIVEN US A BLIZZARD of issues: Meals on Wheels, Twitter diplomacy with China (so much for Hillary's emails :-) ), take healthcare coverage away from millions, etc.

And they are all important - in some cases life or death - to someone.

But I am striving mightily to stay focused on national security.

1. The Russian attack on our elections must be thoroughly investigated whether or not Trump's team "colluded" (for which, as of today, there is no HARD evidence but a bunch of circumstantial evidence).

Special attention should be given to Michael Flynn who was sitting in our our country's most sensitive security briefing while serving as a Turkish foreign agent. Did Trump not know? Or did Trump not care?

2. Trump's attempt to brand and monopolize truth, delegitimizing democratic sources of truth such as a free press, an independent judiciary, an independent civil service, and scientific consensus  despite almost all statements coming out of the White House being demonstrably false.

And now his disconnect from reality is causing him to lose credibility with both HIS OWN PARTY in Congress and allies such as Britain and Germany.

3. Trump's violation of the Emoluments Clause of the Constitution, making him eligible for impeachment from the day he was inaugurated.

I would HATE to lose healthcare, NPR, Meals on Wheels, retraining efforts in Appalachia, Planned Parenthood, etc., but - for me - IMPEACHMENT OR TRUMP'S RESIGNATION COMES FIRST.

I can use all the political tools available to me as a United States citizen to resist a President Pence / Paul Ryan policy war on the citizenry 

But, as I've said for some time (a year, I believe), Trump is an existential threat to American security and democracy.

TRUMP: Bad Policy vs. Constitutional Crisis

Repeal and replace, immigration, travel ban, deregulation, etc., is simply awful, terrible, no-good, harmful legislation. It is worth being a regular pain in the ass to your congressional representatives if not actually crossing the line to non-cooperation, civil disobedience, and possibly even non-violent resistance for sufficiently egregious, unjust, laws to obstruct their intent.

None of this rises to the level of a constitutional crisis so long as the Trump regime continues to obey court orders.

And, in a constitutional crisis, those same tools of resistance are available. In accordance with America's founding, even violence may be on the table as a last resort.

But for religious, ethical, and even pragmatic reasons I renounce violence (including non-lethal violence and at least private property destruction - though there may be times when symbolic public property destruction in the context of civil disobedience, as in the Catonsville Nine case).

BUT AT THE LEVEL OF TRIAGE, it is important to distinguish AND TREAT AS PRIMARY Trump's attempted monopolization of truth, his violations of the Emoluments Clause, and Russia's assault on western democratic institutions - including the American election in which the Trump campaign, knowingly or unknowingly, intentional or inadvertently, may have been played as an asset of a Russian intelligence operation.

Bad legislation can and has been overturned in America's history.

But our current constitutional crisis is, I believe, at a level America has not seen since the Civil War.

And for my skeptical friends, such as John Christman, I'll keep praying for you (and begging your indulgence.) :-)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catonsville_Nine

"RED STORM RISING"

or PUTIN/TRUMP, STOP SCREWING WITH MY AMYGDALA!

Russia wants to weaken the EU, weaken NATO, and to discredit the rule-based, international system or norms created and led, in large part by America, since WWII.

It is attacking civil institutions in the west - including American elections - as the means to achieve that end.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT QUESTION is, "what is the relationship between the Russian government (Putin), the Hillary campaign, and the Trump campaign?"

Investigating this question may (or may not) lead to the impeachment of Trump but the impeachment of Trump will not in and of itself address the Russian threat to the west.

[And, no, progressive as I am, I had NO IDEA I had retained that much of a cold war, neo-con, world view! :-) ]

RED STORM RISING

WORLD WAR III: RUSSIA & TRUMP & "LITTLE GREEN MEN"

If America suffers a nuclear strike, it will know.

If America suffers a chemical attack, it will know.

But if America suffers a biological attack, it may be days, weeks, or even months before it knows.

Such is the case with the asymmetric or hybrid world war America and Europe are engaged in with Russia. A war in which public diplomacy, laundered criminal money, and hacking can be as important - or even more important - than military might.

This asymmetric war is not new but seventeen years under Vladimir Putin, Russia has become VERY good at it.

"Putin has figured out how to turn the West’s purported greatest strength — its belief in democracy, peace, and a rules-based international system — against itself. America and the Europeans are rightly proud of their values and see themselves as models for the world. But when challenged by someone like Putin who disavows these values, Westerners — and Europeans in particular — are forced to choose between their model approach, which means intentionally eschewing the hard methods of the opponent, and the strategic approach, which may require tougher methods.

* * *

"What’s at stake here is more than the future of Ukraine. Putin’s larger goal appears to be to change the nature of the international system, particularly with respect to Europe. If he’s successful it will have exposed the hollowness of the Western model approach to international affairs. He also will have made the model of democracy appear morally corrupt. Ultimately what frightens Putin the most is the viability of that model for his rule at home. Striking a blow against its credibility is not only about international prestige and national pride but a cynical way to maintain his power base inside Russia."

Putin’s Asymmetrical War on the West (FP)

The strategic means of implementing this strategy uses a combination of hard and soft power as well as a combination of legal and illegal actions.

Strategically, Russia’s operations are not formally declared wars, but rapid advances for limited objectives.  They blend military and non-military action, maximizing their ability to employ the national instruments of power to achieve their limited objectives.  They leverage information, conventional, unconventional, electronic, cyber, and precision-based forces as the military means to achieve their objectives.[13]  They seek to employ conventional forces only after ‘provocation’, in many cases this is tied to locations where ethnic Russians are located.  They do this to stay below the threshold of the trigger for NATO’s Article Five.[14]

Assessing Russian Hybrid Warfare: A Successful Tool for Limited War (Small Wars Journal)

This is the context of Russian involvement in the 2016 American presidential campaign as well as other political campaigns throughout Europe.

And IN THAT CONTEXT the critical issue is not executive orders on a Muslim ban by any other name or the Republican destruction of access to medical care for the poor (and especially the older, working poor) - AS IMPORTANT AS THOSE ISSUES ARE.

Because while these are extraordinarily important POLICY issues, they are NOT issues that profoundly threaten our national security and constitutional system of government.

The critical issue of this historical moment in America, with profound foreign policy AND domestic, constitutional implications IS RUSSIA'S ATTACK ON AMERICA'S DOMESTIC DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS, most especially, our elections.

And it is within the context of that CRITICAL issue that the question of whether unwitting manipulation or calculated collusion occurred between the Russian initiative and the Trump campaign must be investigated as well as whether that manipulation or collusion - IF ESTABLISHED - continued throughout the transition period and into the current Trump administration.

For all of America's vitally important issues, none is more urgent and critical than that.

Independent Commission or Trial by Ordeal

RUSSIAN AGGRESSION: Republicans are stupid to resist an independent investigation of Russian interference in our election.

Would they rather have a bipartisan group of knowledgeable "senior statesmen" in intelligence, foreign policy, homeland security, etc. conduct an official investigation OR THAT TRUMP BE TRIED BY the Washington Post, Newsweek, the New Yorker, the New York Times, etc.?

Stonewalling an investigation (or attempting to use their majorities to control the process and outcome) will bring leakers out of the woodwork in an environment where - despite the better angels of their journalistic ethics - there are strong financial pressures to increase circulation and clicks and advertising revenue.

The best Republican strategy is to back an independent investigation into RUSSIAN INTERFERENCE in our election and let the chips fall where they may with the Trump administration OTHERWISE the media's focus will be ON TRUMP, NOT RUSSIA.

Russian Aggression

The most significant event for America in the past year is the Russian attempt to delegitimize our election and delegitimize Hillary Clinton's presidency.

Whether it went beyond that to a positive intent to see Trump elected is, to my mind, an open question.

There must be a bipartisan independent investigation into this Russian initiative especially in the context of their similar attempts in Western Europe to weaken the European Union and NATO in the pursuit of an expansionist foreign policy.

And that investigation must go wherever the evidence leads and, should it lead to the Trump campaign, the Trump transition, or the Trump Whitehouse, so be it.

And if it doesn't, it doesn't.

I believe Trump needs to be impeached on other grounds (his delegitimizing of democratic institutions and competing sources of facts, including the judiciary, the press, science, the very election that placed him in office AS WELL AS his violation of the Emoluments Clause).

What America needs right now is an investigation and response to Russian aggression, the impeachment of Donald Trump on grounds that may or may not overlap with that investigation, and a creative response from BOTH major parties to address the pain and anger revealed in the last election by those of all races, creeds, and ethnicities who feel increasingly abandoned by globalization.